Monday, April 26, 2010

"case #1"

Ok, so let's give this a try. The hand I originally wanted to post was just retarded, as i just scared playing for stacks at a 200 no limit table. So after searching through my database, here's a hand that may be interesting:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from

Button ($101)

SB ($100)

BB ($110.15)

UTG ($73.70)

UTG+1 ($116.55)

MP1 ($100)

MP2 ($70.25)

Hero (MP3) ($143)

CO ($100)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q, K

3 folds, MP2 calls $1, Hero bets $5, 1 fold, Button calls $5, 3 folds

Flop: ($12.50) A, J, 7 (2 players)

Hero bets $8, Button raises to $26, Hero raises to $44, Button raises to $96 (All-In), Hero calls $52

Turn: ($204.50) Q (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($204.50) 10 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $204.50 | Rake: $3


Button had J, A (two pair, Aces and Jacks).

Hero had Q, K (flush, Ace high).

Outcome: Hero won $201.50

Some background:

The player who limped was a fish, he was playing about 1/3 of hands, and limped each time. My raise was trying to isolate him. The button is a competent tight aggressive regular. The fish folds, and i'm heads up out of position against the reg. His preflop calling range of my raise consists of: 22-QQ, AJo+, A10s+. He will most likely only raise AA, KK, and occasionally AK and QQ.

On the flop: Gin! Flopped the nuts... So how do we get villians stack? On a monotone flop like this, I would typically lead out with any ace, face card flush draw, and pair with flush draw, AJ, sets, and some air (bluff). So my continuation bet doesn't necessarily scream monster.

He raises. Yea! So this villian is definitely capable of raising this flop light, but i think mostly he has a decent hand. I'll assign a range of AA,JJ,77, a smaller flush like J10dd, AJs, A7s, and some air (say 42spades, and 42clubs). Let's pokerstove it:

KdQd has 90% equity against this range, and he's crushed. My pot odds are I have to call 18 to win 46.5, or 2.58:1 So the question is whether to raise or call. If I raise here, it's obviously for value. I expect villian to call or raise (this is his continuance range) with sets, AJs, and A7s only. Ok, so this is where i have trouble... villians range at this point is about 2.2% of hands. His continuance range is 1.1% of hands. So he continues with 50% of his range (don't know about this math). So if he's calling/raising with about half of his range, it's seems more profitable to raise since there are many cards on the turn which will kill some action (any diamond will slow down any sets, and any A,J,or 7 will put any sets and some two pairs ahead). So there's 8 diamonds, 3 aces, 3 jacks, and 3 sevens that are theoretically out there for a total of 17 cards of the remaining 45 or about 38% of the deck is bad...

So I elect to raise and in this instance, one of the hands in his range (AJo) decides to play for stacks...

Ok, that was long...

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